"The enemy is always at the door because the devil is still the king of the world. Things should be addressed the way they are. You know that we have a neighbor to the north of our country who has not been on good terms with us, and now they continue to pursue us, accusing us of being interference in a plan to conquer the neighboring Congo," he said.
However, political analyst Tite Gatabazi believes Ndayishimiye uses this rhetoric to divert attention from internal issues.
"He faces numerous internal challenges, including governance issues, corruption, and the shortage of basic necessities including food and fuel. To maintain control over his population, he must create an external enemy. Since he cannot find one internally, he seeks one outside the country to shift the blame for his problems," Gatabazi told IGIHE.
Gatabazi added: "In order to distract the population from these issues, he has to reinforce the idea that Rwanda is about to attack... 'You are asking me for this and that, but do you realize we are about to be attacked?'"
Ndayishimiye further claimed that Burundi is always prepared for any conflict, asserting, "Burundi is not a country to be trifled with. Therefore, you must be cautious and work together with your leaders and the people. What we promise is that we are always prepared for that war. Let me inform you that all the citizens are alert. Whoever dares to attack Burundi will know how the war begins but will not know how it will end."
However, Gatabazi believes that Ndayishimiye's leadership is marred by corruption, where the military is divided along ethnic lines, training is based on nepotism, and officials embezzle funds, making it impossible for them to have the modern equipment necessary to win a war.
'Ndayishimiye is left with only words; he knows it, he doesn't have the resources or the military strength. We have seen this in North Kivu and South Kivu, but he continues to rely on rhetoric. However, these words have political intentions. He is trying to show Burundians that he is their leader by saying, 'Don't worry, Rwanda will not defeat us'.'
Despite his boastful claims, Ndayishimiye's actions show the challenges his government faces. Burundi's military, over 20,000 strong, has been deployed in South Kivu, where they fought alongside FARDC and FDLR terrorist group but were ultimately defeated by M23 fighters in December 2025.
According to reports, DRC President Tshisekedi has voiced dissatisfaction with the performance of the Burundian forces, questioning their failure to achieve their objectives.
Gatabazi insists that Ndayishimiye's rhetoric is a tactic to manipulate the population.
"He knows very well that Rwanda has no plans to attack him, and that is why he continues to boast. He uses this to manipulate his people, but you can see he is afraid."
Ndayishimiye's reliance on his relationship with the DRC complicates his position on Rwanda.
Gatabazi explained that President Ndayishimiye's reliance on Kinshasa is so strong that he is not ready to soften his approach towards Rwanda.
'Ndayishimiye is using rhetoric to avoid taking practical actions. If he opens the borders, he would be betraying Tshisekedi, and we know the Belgians would not approve of that. He is trying to show that he is open to talks but is also looking for ways to delay the implementation of agreements from those talks, to give himself a reason to blame others," he added.
Since January 2024, Burundi has closed its borders with Rwanda, accusing it of supporting the RED Tabara rebels.
Rwanda has repeatedly denied these claims, emphasizing that the refugees from Burundi, who fled in 2015, are civilians and can return freely.
At the same time, Rwanda has accused Burundi of working with FDLR, a terrorist group with intentions to threaten Rwanda's security.
Gatabazi confirmed that even before the FDLR group was involved in smuggling precious minerals through the Bujumbura market, with many of its fighters running investments in the country.
IGIHE
