The index slightly rose to 102.8 in January 2025 from 102.7 in December 2024, indicating trade volumes remain above trend. A barometer reading above 100 suggests higher-than-trend trade activity, while readings below 100 indicate potential decline.
While the WTO noted accelerating merchandise trade growth, it also warned of risks from rising trade policy uncertainty and potential new tariffs that could impact trade in the medium term. A slowdown in demand is expected later this year.
The barometer's components showed consistent trends in export orders, electronic components, and raw materials. Meanwhile, automotive products, container shipping, and air freight all performed better than expected.
WTO's projections for 2024 and 2025 trade volume growth, released in October 2024, were largely in line with the developments observed in the first three quarters of 2024, with anticipated growth rates of 2.7 percent for 2024 and 3 percent for 2025.
IGIHE
