Cardinals Peter Turkson of Ghana and Robert Sarah of Guinea are both being closely watched. Turkson, 76, has long been an influential voice on social justice, climate change, and human rights. Though he has maintained the Church's traditional teachings on marriage and priesthood, he has shown a willingness to critique harsh anti-LGBTQ+ laws in Africa, arguing for more compassionate responses.
His moderate stances, combined with decades of experience in Vatican diplomacy, position him as a potential bridge between the global south and Rome.
Robert Sarah, 79, represents the more conservative wing of the Church. A vocal critic of modern gender discourse and a staunch traditionalist, Sarah has previously aligned with former Pope Benedict XVI on issues such as clerical celibacy. His election would signal a sharp turn away from Francis's progressive reforms.
If chosen, either cardinal would become the first Black pope in centuriesâ€"a historic shift at a time when the Church's fastest-growing populations are in Africa and Asia.
Historically, three African popes served in the early centuries of the Church: Pope Victor I (c. 189â€"199), Pope Miltiades (311â€"314), and Pope Gelasius I (492â€"496). All were of North African origin and played significant roles in shaping early Christianity. Since then, no African has held the papacy, making the current moment particularly significant as the Church grapples with questions of representation and global relevance.
Other frontrunners include Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, considered a 'continuity candidate' who played a key role in the Vatican's diplomatic engagement with China and the Middle East. He is viewed as a pragmatic moderate, although his critics argue he compromises too much on doctrine for the sake of diplomacy.
From Asia, Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, once seen as a natural heir to Francis, now appears to have lost momentum. Still, his advocacy for the poor and pastoral openness on LGBTQ+ and divorced Catholics make him a figure to watch.
Hungarian Cardinal Péter Erdő, 72, stands out as a leading conservative voice and could represent a break with Francis's direction. Known for his intellect and defence of doctrine, Erdő has also drawn criticism for aligning with Hungary's nationalist leadership on migration issues.
On the progressive side, Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, 69, of Italy, is closely associated with Francis's legacy. Known for his peace-building efforts in Ukraine and relatively liberal views on same-sex relationships, Zuppi could carry the torch for a more inclusive Church.
Portugal's José Tolentino Calaça de Mendonça, at 59, is among the youngest candidates. Though close to Francis, his age and progressive viewsâ€"particularly his openness to modern cultural issuesâ€"may prove too controversial for traditionalists.
Other names in contention include Malta's Mario Grech and Italian Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, known for his advocacy for Christians in the Holy Land and his personal sacrifice during the Israel-Gaza conflict.
The election will follow centuries-old Vatican traditions. The College of Cardinals, composed of those under 80 years old, will cast secret ballots inside the Sistine Chapel. For a candidate to win, he must secure a two-thirds majority.
If no consensus is reached in a round, the ballots are burned and black smoke rises from the chapel's chimneyâ€"signalling to the world that the conclave continues. White smoke, however, will announce the moment the Church has chosen its new leader.
Wycliffe Nyamasege
