The coveted continental seat will become vacant in February 2025, as the current chairperson, Moussa Faki, completes his two terms in office.
The chairperson of the AU Commission serves as the Chief Executive Officer of the African Union and is crucial in driving the Union's agenda while representing the continent on the global stage.
Candidates for the position are nominated by African Union member states, and a high-level panel of eminent Africans assesses and shortlists them based on qualifications, experience, and leadership capabilities. The final election is conducted by the Assembly of the African Union, comprising representatives from all member states. A two-thirds majority by secret ballot is required to elect the new chairperson.
The next AUC chairperson will be elected in February 2025 during the African Union Summit at its headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, and will serve a four-year term, renewable once.
The role is rotated among the AU's five geographical regions: Northern, Southern, Eastern, Western, and Central Africa. This rotation policy ensures inclusivity and representation within the African Union, with each region having an opportunity to lead.
In March 2024, the African Union Executive Council unanimously resolved that the Eastern Africa region would nominate candidates to succeed Faki, who hails from Chad in the Central African region.
Candidates
Initially, at least six candidates from Eastern African states expressed interest in the role, but the race has narrowed to four candidates and two main contenders following the withdrawal of former Somali Foreign Affairs Minister Fawzia Yusuf in August.
Former Kenyan Prime Minister and longstanding opposition leader Raila Odinga and Djibouti's former Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf are touted as the frontrunners. Other candidates include Anil Gayan, a former foreign minister of Mauritius; and Richard Randriamandrato, a former foreign minister of Madagascar.
Former Seychelles Vice President Vincent Meriton, who had expressed interest in the position, did not have his candidacy submitted by his country before the August 6, 2024, deadline.
Odinga has already secured backing from East African Community (EAC) member states and Yusuf of Somalia, a significant boost to his bid for the AUC chairmanship.
In fact, Odinga's official bid launch in Nairobi in August was attended by four sitting heads of state: Kenyan President William Ruto, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, South Sudanese President Salva Kiir, and Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu. Also in attendance were former presidents Olusegun Obasanjo of Nigeria and Jakaya Kikwete of Tanzania.
Rwanda's Minister of State for Regional Cooperation, James Kabarebe, represented President Paul Kagame at the event.
While endorsing Odinga, President Ruto expressed confidence in his ability to lead the continent toward prosperity.
"I present to you a visionary Pan-African leader, a statesman, and a veteran mobilizer for positive change. I am confident that he will make Africa proud and powerful," said Ruto.
Odinga, who has pledged to push for the scrapping of visas for intra-Africa travel and the removal of trade barriers, has also gained support from heads of state in Ghana, Malawi, Mozambique, and Algeria.
However, despite this substantial backing, Odinga faces stiff competition from his Djiboutian counterpart, particularly following the revelation that the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) has decided to support Mahmoud Ali Youssouf for the AUC chairmanship.
Djibouti's ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Dya-eddine Bamakhrama, announced that the 50th session of the OIC Council of Ministers of Foreign Affairs, held in Yaoundé, Cameroon, in August, unanimously resolved to back Youssouf.
With at least 27 OIC members from Africa, some pundits believe this could give Odinga a run for his money.
Despite Bamakhrama's announcement on X, the extent of support from Islamic countries remains to be seen.
Anglophone vs Francophone Dynamics
Analysts point out that linguistic divisions between Anglophone and Francophone countries will likely play a significant role in determining the winner.
Kenyan diplomatic affairs analyst Ahmed Hashi predicts Odinga may lose to the Djiboutian candidate, citing the influence of Francophone countries.
"I would be shocked if he even gets a slim majority. The Djiboutian candidate will win with a landslide," Hashi said during an interview with Kenya's Citizen TV.
Hashi believes that language blocsâ€"French, English, and Portuguese-speaking nationsâ€"will be pivotal in the voting process.
"The AU is divided along these fundamental lines, and the French influence is the biggest," he explained.
Recalling Kenya's 2017 defeat in a similar race, when Amina Mohamed lost after seven rounds of voting, Hashi suggested that French-speaking countries had a significant impact on that outcome and might do the same in this election.
'I was the spokesperson at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs during that election. We were confident of winning, but the French government intervened heavily, and we lost. Djibouti, which had supported us, eventually stabbed us in the back," he said, drawing a parallel to the current situation.
Odinga, however, is relying on his experience and influence from serving as the AU High Representative for Infrastructure Development in Africa between 2018 and 2023 to tilt the odds in his favour.
Mauritius's Anil Gayan is also considered a key contender for the position. A lawyer and former foreign minister, this marks his second attempt at the role, having previously contested for the seat in 2017.
He possesses extensive knowledge of the African Union's architecture and its commission's operations, having been deployed by the AU for various assignments.
Notably, in July 2013, he led an AU-appointed investigation team to examine the circumstances surrounding the killing of Abyei's paramount chief. Additionally, he was involved in United Nations mediation efforts in Guinea-Bissau in 2008.
Wycliffe Nyamasege
