These prices replaced the rates introduced in September 2025, when a litre of petrol cost Frw 1,862 and diesel cost Frw 1,808. This means petrol increased by Frw 127 per litre, while diesel rose by Frw 92. Such a significant rise in fuel prices is rare in Rwanda.
In an interview with IGIHE, the Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Trade and Industry, Antoine Marie Kajangwe, explained that the increase in fuel prices this time is driven by two main factors.
'To put it simply, the rise was caused by two things. You may recall that in July, the government introduced VAT on petrol prices. Once you add an extra 18% to any product, the price naturally goes up. That is why you saw prices rise,' he said.
Kajangwe added, 'In the past two months, what pushed prices up slightly is that most of our fuel normally transits through Tanzania because fuel transported through the country is cheaper than that transported through Kenya. But due to some recent issues, importers started sourcing fuel through Kenya. Since fuel from Kenya is a bit more expensive, it affects overall prices.'
Rwanda revises fuel prices every two months. This is because transporting fuel from Arab countries where it is purchased to Kigali typically takes about two months.
This means global market prices affect Rwanda's fuel prices with a two-month delay.
On November 15, 2025, a barrel of oil on the global market was selling at $60.09, down from $64.1 on September 1, 2025.
Looking at the past two months, this month saw the sharpest drop, with prices ranging between $60.98, $58, and $60.09 since November 1.
In Rwanda, the retail price of petrol is determined by the international price from the previous two months, the cost of transporting the fuel from the ports of Dar es Salaam or Mombasa to Kigali, the exchange rate, and the VAT applied.
The Managing Director of Société Pétrolière Ltd (SP), Habimana Claudien, said that sourcing fuel from Kenya is one of the three reasons prices increased.
He explained, 'We used to import most of our petrol through Tanzania, but now we have started importing through Kenya and fuel in Kenya is more expensive. Another reason is the slight increase in prices on the global market.'
He revealed that at least 99% of fuel imported into Rwanda would be transited through Tanzania. However, delays in offloading ships and security concerns during Tanzania's recent presidential elections pushed companies to source fuel through Kenya.
In September 2025, 34% of imported petrol came through Kenya, while Tanzania handled 66%. In October 2025, 87% of fuel came from Tanzania and 13% from Kenya. Overall, fuel imported through Kenya in the past two months rose to 23%, up from just 1%.
He said, 'So you can see that petrol coming through Kenya has increased and since it is more expensive, this contributed to the price increase.'
Habimana added that although the price of diesel rose to Frw 1,900 per litre, the government introduced a subsidy of Frw 78 per litre.
He explained, 'Without that subsidy, the impact would have been much bigger. You know diesel drives public transport and most goods. The government reduced the tax by Frw 78 per litre. However, there is no subsidy on petrol, which is why petrol is much more expensive.'
He concluded by saying that despite these challenges, it is important for Rwanda to continue using both transport corridors through Tanzania and Kenya when importing fuel, as this would give the country better flexibility.
What will be the economic impact?
Kajangwe explained that although fuel prices have increased, the government is exploring ways to reduce them in the coming months.
'There are measures the government is putting in place to see how these prices can be brought down, including looking at how fuel coming through Kenya can become cheaper. We expect that in the next three or four months …' he said.
Regarding the possibility of a subsidy, Kajangwe said he could not confirm it but noted that the government constantly reviews the situation.
He highlighted that the rise in fuel prices should not significantly impact the prices of basic commodities because transport costs are not increasing dramatically.
According to an analysis by the Ministry, transport costs may rise by between Frw 4 and Frw 6 per kilogram for goods brought from the Eastern Province, and between Frw 6 and Frw 8 for goods from Rusizi District.
'There should not be an impact on general business, and you have seen that public transport fares have not increased. People should not use this as an excuse to raise prices. Often, those who want to take advantage increase prices by Frw 20, Frw 30, or Frw 40 when there is no real justification,' he said.
However, based on MINICOM's assessment, if a truck carries five tons of goods meaning 5,000 kilograms the existing transport cost would increase by between Frw 20,000 and Frw 30,000 for goods transported from the Eastern Province, and between Frw 30,000 and Frw 40,000 for those transported from Rusizi. This makes it difficult for transporters to absorb the extra costs since they consume large amounts of diesel.
Cyprien Musabirema, a truck driver transporting goods from the Southern Province to Kigali, said the situation has already changed because transport costs have risen.
He explained, 'Transport fares have not increased, but the cost of diesel we use has increased significantly. Previously, I used Frw 260,000 for fuel, but now it is about Frw 320,000. That is extra money added, yet the client does not want to adjust the payment. It becomes very complicated, but we accept the loss to avoid losing customers, hoping they will eventually understand.'
Modetse Nsengiyumva, a motorcycle taxi rider, said the Frw 123 increase in petrol per litre puts them at a loss because customers refuse to pay higher fares.
He said, 'You tell a customer that fuel has increased, and he replies that his salary has not changed.'
He added that a motorcyclist using petrol at Frw 1,989 per litre cannot make a profit of more than Frw 2,000 a day, yet they have daily needs, including supporting their families.
Claudien Habimana also noted, 'When petrol becomes more expensive but the user's budget does not increase, he reduces the number of trips he makes. Once trips are reduced, activities are delayed. In that case, people start relying more on phone calls instead of moving around.'
On the other hand, economic expert Teddy Kaberuka told IGIHE that price increases are inevitable when fuel prices rise.
He explained, 'It is well known that when petrol and diesel prices go up, they affect market prices. A person who transports goods to the market faces higher transport costs. For example, someone who used to use a small truck to bring potatoes must use more diesel, and he cannot absorb that cost.'
He added that rising prices reduce people's purchasing power, making them unable to buy the same amount of goods as before.
Currently, in the East African region, a litre of petrol costs Frw 2,059 in Uganda, Frw 2,069 in Kenya, Frw 1,635 in Tanzania, Frw 1,967 in Burundi, and Frw 1,773 in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
IGIHE
Source : https://en.igihe.com/news/article/what-s-behind-the-rise-in-fuel-prices-in-rwanda
