The sharp rise is being driven by preventable factors such as hepatitis infections, obesity-related liver conditions, and alcohol consumption, researchers say.
In Rwanda, as in many countries around the world, liver cancer remains a pressing health concern. According to 2020 data, it was responsible for 706 deaths, accounting for 1.22% of all deaths in the country. The age-adjusted death rate stood at 11.48 per 100,000 population, placing Rwanda 24th globally in liver cancer mortality.
The new study, conducted by an international team of experts and drawing from data in the Global Cancer Observatory, warns that if current trends continue, liver cancer will remain among the world's most lethal diseases, already ranking as the third deadliest cancer globally. By 2050, it is expected to claim 1.37 million lives each year, up from current figures.
Researchers stress that three out of five cases could be prevented through targeted public health interventions.
Preventable causes driving the surge
The study highlights several key risk factors fueling the rise in liver cancer cases, including viral hepatitis B and C, alcohol abuse, and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), a condition previously known as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.
MASLD is increasingly linked to rising rates of obesity and diabetes, particularly in high-income countries and urban areas in Asia, Europe, and North America.
Alcohol consumption alone is projected to cause more than 21% of liver cancer cases by 2050, up from 19% in 2022. Similarly, cancers related to liver fat buildup from obesity are expected to increase to 11%, also up more than two percentage points from current levels.
The study's authors emphasise that these are largely modifiable risks that require stronger public health messaging and lifestyle interventions.
Hepatitis B is still a major threat
Despite the availability of effective vaccines, hepatitis B continues to pose a major global threat. The virus remains the leading cause of liver cancer worldwide and is expected to be responsible for millions of deaths if vaccination rates do not improve.
The study warns that hepatitis B could cause up to 17 million deaths between 2015 and 2030 unless vaccine coverage, especially in poorer regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, is significantly expanded.
Vaccination at birth is considered the most effective prevention method, but many low-income countries still face barriers in implementing widespread immunisation programs. The study calls for renewed international investment in public health infrastructure to increase access to vaccines and antiviral treatments.
The authors of the study stress the urgent need for global action to reverse these trends. They recommend increasing public awareness around the preventable nature of liver cancer, especially among populations with obesity or diabetes, who may not be aware of the risks associated with fatty-liver disease.
The report also advocates for enhanced screening programs for high-risk individuals and more resources to support early detection, particularly in regions where late-stage diagnoses are common.
Liver cancer occurs when abnormal cells grow uncontrollably in the liver, forming a malignant tumour. The liver, a vital organ located in the upper right abdomen, is responsible for filtering harmful substances from the blood, producing bile for digestion, and storing nutrients.
There are two main types of liver cancer. Primary liver cancer originates in the liver itself, with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) being the most common form. Other less common types include cholangiocarcinoma (bile duct cancer) and angiosarcoma.
Secondary or metastatic liver cancer, on the other hand, begins in another part of the bodyâ€"such as the colon, breast, or lungâ€"and spreads to the liver. This type is more common in many parts of the world than primary liver cancer.
The risk of developing liver cancer is heightened by several factors, including chronic infection with hepatitis B or C, cirrhosis (scarring of the liver often caused by alcohol abuse or chronic hepatitis), obesity, diabetes, heavy alcohol consumption, smoking, and certain inherited liver diseases such as hemochromatosis. Exposure to environmental toxins like aflatoxins can also contribute.
Often silent, but deadly
One of the challenges in combating liver cancer is that it often develops silently. In its early stages, liver cancer may not cause noticeable symptoms. As the disease progresses, however, patients may experience pain or discomfort in the upper right abdomen, swelling or a hard lump under the rib cage, jaundice (yellowing of the skin and eyes), unexplained weight loss, fatigue, nausea, loss of appetite, vomiting, chalky stools, dark urine, or fever.
Because these symptoms often appear in advanced stages, early detection is critical. Regular screening, particularly using ultrasound, is recommended for individuals with chronic liver disease or other risk factors.
Wycliffe Nyamasege
