Ivan Murenzi, Director General of the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR), has outlined the pivotal role of data in driving Rwanda's ambitious development goals, emphasising the credibility and independence of the country's statistical processes.
Speaking on the Long Form podcast hosted by Sanny Ntayombya, Murenzi defended the recent findings from the 7th Integrated Household and Living Conditions Survey (EICV7), highlighting a remarkable 12.4% reduction in poverty, while also rubbishing past accusations of data manipulation against Rwanda.
The EICV7 survey, released on Wednesday, April 16, revealed that Rwanda's poverty rate dropped from 39.8% in 2017 to 27.4% in 2024, lifting approximately 1.5 million people out of poverty over seven years.
'That's equivalent to 1.5 million people coming out of poverty within a period of seven years,' Murenzi said, describing the reduction as a 'surprise' given the stagnation in poverty levels between 2014 and 2017, when the rate only fell from 39.1% to 38.2%.
He attributed the progress to cumulative government efforts and methodological updates, including capturing food consumed outside homes, such as through school feeding programs, and adjusting the calorie threshold for extreme poverty from 2,500 to 2,400 calories per day.
Murenzi strongly defended NISR's data integrity, addressing a 2019 Financial Times article that accused Rwanda of misrepresenting poverty statistics.
'We don't give weight to such criticism because of who they are,' he stated, arguing that critics like the Financial Times lack the statistical expertise of authoritative institutions like the World Bank, Iinternatinal Monetary Fund (IMF), and United Nations (UN) Statistics Division, all of which validate NISR's methodologies.
He stressed Rwanda's adherence to international standards, noting, 'What we do across various statistics... are things done following international standards practices.'
Murenzi also refuted claims of World Bank dissent, highlighting ongoing collaboration, with a senior World Bank economist present at the EICV7 launch to endorse the findings.
The NISR chief underscored the institute's independence, denying any political pressure to manipulate data.
'There's no pressure for me because I'm not the one implementing,' he said, explaining that NISR's role is to measure, not implement, policies.
He pointed to NISR's transparency in reporting unfavourable trends, such as unemployment rising to 21% during COVID, negative GDP growth, and inflation peaking at 20% in 2022.
Murenzi also cited NISR's rigorous approach to evaluating local government performance (Imihigo), using evidence-based checks like household sampling and site visits to counter inflated claims.
Beyond poverty, the EICV7 highlighted Rwanda's inequality challenges, with a national Gini coefficient of 0.37 indicating moderate inequality, while Kigali's 0.44 reflects a higher wealth gap.
'In Kigali... you have a concentration of those in the country who are well off,' Murenzi explained, noting that provinces show lower inequality (0.27â€"0.3) due to smaller disparities.
He clarified that this does not mean provinces are uniformly poor, but rather that wealth gaps are less pronounced outside the capital.
Murenzi also addressed Rwanda's Vision 2035 goal of achieving upper-middle-income status, requiring a GDP per capita of approximately $4,000 by 2035. Acknowledging the ambition, he noted that it demands annual growth of around 12%, far exceeding recent trends.
'There's no ambiguity that this ambition requires another change in the way things are done,' he said, citing government-wide efforts to enhance efficiency and evidence-based policymaking.
He envisioned an expanded role for NISR, with analysts working directly with ministries like Agriculture to optimise interventions.
'We are saying our role is going to include sending our analysts to work with ministries... to say in your interventions how is evidence,' he added.
On poverty metrics, Murenzi clarified why Rwanda's poverty line ( 560,000 RWF/year, or $400 at 1,400 RWF/USD) differs from the World Bank's $2.15/day global benchmark.
'Every country has its poverty line because it is reflecting the context the cost of living,' he said, noting that Rwanda's line accounts for local costs, unlike the World Bank's standardized measure for cross-country comparisons.
The extreme poverty threshold, set at 2,400 calories per day, aligns with World Food Programme standards, reflecting Rwanda's evolving economic activities from subsistence farming to mixed sectors.
Murenzi emphasised data accessibility, confirming that the EICV7 report and anonymised raw data are available on NISR's website.
'The report is already on our website. We are already tweeting it and sharing a link,' he said, adding that the data's transparency allows independent verification.
Watch the full interview below:
Wycliffe Nyamasege
