His government, backed by a patchwork of forces including the Congolese army, FDLR Genocidal militia, Burundian troops, European mercenaries, the SADC military force, and even MONUSCO peacekeepers, has suffered defeat after defeat.
The numbers are staggering. Nearly three times the size of Belgium has fallen under M23's control. Over four billion dollars have been spent on military operations.
More than seven thousand troops and militia fighters aligned with the government have been killed. After all this, Tshisekedi is now doing what he swore he never would. He is talking to the M23.
From the beginning, Tshisekedi miscalculated his moves. He placed all his hopes on a miracle military solution that never existed. He ignored peace efforts, dismissed negotiations, and instead built a coalition of foreign forces to fight M23.
But no amount of weapons, troops, or alliances could compensate for the fundamental weakness of the Congolese army. The forces he relied on were riddled with corruption, poor training, and a complete lack of leadership.
He believed Burundian troops would turn the tide. They did not. He trusted South Africans would make a difference. They did not. He sought European mercenaries, MONUSCO, and now SADC forces. None of them succeeded.
Instead, his military strategy collapsed spectacularly. Despite being better equipped than ever, the Congolese army remains disorganized, unreliable, and incapable of holding territory. M23, with far fewer fighters, has outmaneuvered, outgunned, and outstrategized his coalition at every turn.
For years, Tshisekedi refused to engage in serious peace talks. Instead, he tried to rally international support against Rwanda, using lobbyists to push Western nations, particularly the United States, to back his anti-M23 campaign.
Recently, he even tried to recruit Chad into the conflict, offering mineral deals in exchange for military support. But with battlefield realities becoming impossible to ignore, he now has no choice but to negotiate. The big question is whether these talks can be trusted.
Tshisekedi has spent three years avoiding peace efforts and branding M23 as terrorists unworthy of dialogue. Now, suddenly, he is at the table. His history suggests this may not be a genuine effort for peace but rather a tactic to buy time. It could be just another pause before yet another military gamble.
The cost of a lost war
After three years of war, Tshisekedi is back to where he started, but at a much higher cost. Massive territorial losses have put key areas under M23's control and the DRC army's incompetence is now globally recognized.
Billions of dollars that could have been used to rebuild the country have instead been wasted on a losing war. Tens of thousands of people have died, including government troops, militia fighters, and innocent civilians. The government now enters negotiations from a position of complete weakness.
Had Tshisekedi pursued diplomacy from the beginning, much of this destruction could have been avoided. Instead, he chose war, believing in an impossible victory that never came.
Now, with his back against the wall, he must negotiate. The real question is whether he will do so with sincerity or if this is just another chapter in a cycle of failed leadership, false promises, and endless conflicts.
Kalisa Ngabe
