Political pundits remain confident that the outcome of the 2024 presidential election will be determined by swing states. These battleground states are significant in U.S. elections as they often decide the outcome in the Electoral College due to their unpredictable voting patterns.
The Electoral College is a unique system used in U.S. presidential elections, where voters technically vote for electors, who then vote to elect the president and vice president. This system is so powerful that a candidate can win the popular voteâ€"meaning they receive more total votes from across the countryâ€"but still lose the election due to the Electoral College.
In the U.S., each state has a set number of electors, which is equal to the sum of its U.S. Senators (always two) and its U.S. Representatives (which varies based on the state's population). In total, there are 538 electors, and a candidate must receive a majorityâ€"at least 270 electoral votesâ€"to win the presidency.
In recent days, Trump, who is running on the Republican Party ticket, and his Democratic counterpart, Harris, have continued their blitz across key swing states such as Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina as they press for any possible advantage in the closing days of the campaign.
Other swing states expected to determine this year's election outcome include Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin. These states were pivotal in the 2020 election and remain closely contested due to their evenly split or shifting voter demographics.
There are two notable examples where the Electoral College determined the winner despite the national popularity indicating otherwise:
Al Gore in 2000
The Democratic Party's Al Gore won the popular vote by over 500,000 votes in the 2000 presidential election but lost the presidency to Republican George W. Bush. The Electoral College vote came down to a razor-thin margin in Florida, where Bush won by a small number of votes.
Despite Gore's popular vote lead, Bush secured more electoral votes, 271 against Gore's 266. In this election, one of Washington D.C.'s three electors abstained from voting, which lowered the total electoral votes cast to 537 rather than the usual 538.
Hillary Clinton in 2016
In the 2016 election, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by nearly three million votes, but Trump won the presidency by capturing key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. These wins gave Trump enough electoral votes to surpass the 270 needed, even though Clinton received more votes nationwide.
Policies
Divergent stances on key policies are also expected to play a role in determining the winner. Trump and Harris differ on the implementation of various government policies, with each strongly defending their positions.
For instance, Trump has been promoting tax cuts for businesses and higher-income earners, arguing that this approach stimulates economic growth and investment. Harris, on the other hand, supports progressive tax reforms, including higher taxes on the wealthy and large corporations to fund social programs. She advocates for policies aimed at reducing income inequality, increasing the minimum wage, and providing direct support to lower- and middle-income families.
On the sensitive issue of immigration, Trump proposes strict immigration policies, focusing on border security, reducing both legal and illegal immigration, and building a border wall. His policies include reducing refugee admissions and imposing travel bans from certain countries. Harris advocates for more inclusive immigration policies, including protections for DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals) recipients, expanding pathways to citizenship, and reforming the immigration system to be more humane and efficient.
On social issues, Trump generally opposes expanded LGBTQ+ rights and has taken stances against abortion, appealing to conservative and evangelical bases. Harris, by contrast, supports LGBTQ+ rights, expanded gender equality initiatives, and access to reproductive healthcare.
As the election approaches, the nation waits to see how these policy differences and the dynamics of the Electoral College will shape the final outcome.
Wycliffe Nyamasege
