Daniel Chapo, running for the presidency on the ruling FRELIMO party ticket, is almost certain to win, succeeding Filipe Nyusi, who is retiring after two terms. His challengers include Ossufo Momade, the leader of Mozambique's main opposition party and former rebel movement, Renamo, as well as Lutero (MDN) and Simango Venancio Mondlane (independent).
The 47-year-old former university professor, campaigning under the slogan "Let's get to work," is expected to oversee the revival of two liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects currently stalled due to insecurity in northern Cabo Delgado province.
Local analysts argue that Chapo's development goals will heavily depend on the continued military support from the Rwandan forces, first deployed by Nyusi in 2021 to assist local troops in containing the insurgency.
"The Rwandans are undeniably competent," Tertius Jacobs, lead Mozambique analyst at risk consultancy Focus Group, told Reuters. "Mozambique ... has little to no better alternative."
Jacobs notes that Nyusi's introduction of Chapo to Rwandan President Paul Kagame in June signals a likely continuation of Rwandan involvement.
Rwandan forces, operating in the volatile northern province, are tasked with securing the area around the Afungi site, where TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil are planning LNG projects. TotalEnergies halted its $20 billion project when the skirmishes erupted in 2021.
Robert Besseling, CEO of consultancy Pangea-Risk, emphasized that the presence of Rwandan troops will remain crucial to the next administration's efforts to neutralize terrorist threats, which have hindered Mozambique's ambition to become a major gas exporter.
'They have thousands of troops there to protect the LNG sites,' Besseling remarked.
Rwanda began deploying its security forces to Mozambique on July 9, 2021. Initially, the contingent included 1,000 troops from the Rwanda Defence Force and Rwanda National Police.
By late 2022, the Rwandan troop presence had increased to approximately 2,500, reflecting an expanded mandate to pursue and dislodge terrorists from their strongholds.
Since 2021, Mozambique has also received military support from the Southern African Development Community (SADC), but SADC forces began withdrawing in April 2024 as their mandate ended. This withdrawal has left Rwanda with a greater share of responsibility in assisting local forces in addressing the ongoing security crisis.
Before the intervention of Rwandan troops in 2021, the insurgency had claimed the lives of 3,000 civilians, and more than 800,000 people had been displaced. The insecurity also brought all development projects in insurgent-controlled areas to a halt.
Rwanda's most recent troop deployment to Mozambique was in August 2024, led by Major General Emmy Ruvusha. The troops are responsible for securing several key areas and communities in Mocimboa da Praia, Chinda, Palma, Afungi, Pundanhar, Macomia, Ancuabe, and Pemba.
Wycliffe Nyamasege
