M23 and FARDC accuse each other of violating the ceasefire, while at the same time vowing to respond with force if provoked.
These statements are accompanied by military preparations through drills, increasing the number of soldiers or fighters, and mobilizing more weapons.
All this is happening amid ongoing mediation by the State of Qatar and the United States of America to bring both parties to the negotiating table.
However, the agreed timeline has already lapsed, as the peace accord was expected to be signed no later than August 18, 2025 something that still appears far off.
On the battlefield, it is officially said that no clashes are taking place, yet M23 and militias under the Wazalendo coalition supported by the Congolese government continue engaging in daily skirmishes.
The coalition of government forces has also continued to launch attacks against civilians, including members of the Banyamulenge community in South Kivu Province.
The tense situation in eastern DRC signals that four possible scenarios may unfold in the near future.
Tshisekedi's withdrawal from the talks
As a Rwandan proverb says, 'Ibitinze birabora'â€"literally, 'what delays will eventually rot.' This adage warns of the setbacks and risks that often accompany unnecessary delays.
The stalled outcome of the Doha process is not a good sign; rather, it shows that efforts to reconcile the two sides have consistently failed, especially after the Declaration of Principles signed on July 19 were not respected.
These principles were supposed to be observed by July 29, followed by peace talks not later than August 8, and finally the signing of a peace accord. However, that entire timeline collapsed.
M23 accuses the Congolese government of continuing to attack civilians and its positions, while also refusing to release 700 of its prisoners despite earlier commitments to do so before peace talks could begin. The group argues that there is no reason to enter negotiations if those principles are not upheld.
The conduct of the Congolese government should serve as a reminder: whenever it has delayed in implementing resolutions from peace talks, it has eventually withdrawn altogether. This was the case at the end of 2022, when it pulled out of the Nairobi talks.
In a meeting held on August 30 with members of the Union Sacrée ruling coalition, President Tshisekedi stated that Congolese people do not need a mediator to hold dialogue, and that those who take up arms should not be included in negotiations. This signaled a different agenda in the Doha process.
'Congolese people do not need a mediator in order to talk. They should not have to take up arms before entering discussions. Congolese people have already demonstrated that they follow democracy, and they engage through democracy and respect for the rule of law in their own country,' he said.
On September 4, M23 spokesperson Lawrence Kanyuka, speaking in South Africa, said that Tshisekedi was seeking war.
'He declared that he has closed the door on all negotiations â€" he wants war. This is what he has been saying from the very beginning,' he stated.
M23 could seize more major cities
By June 2025, M23 controlled 34,000 square kilometers of territory in eastern DRC, including key cities such as Goma in North Kivu Province and Bukavu in South Kivu Province.
It appears that if the Congolese army, along with Burundian forces, FDLR, Wazalendo militias, and mercenaries, launched offensives against M23 positions, the conflict could escalate further.
This could push the group's fighters to capture additional areas, including the city of Uvira, which serves as one of the government's major strongholds.
On September 2, the commander of M23 Maj Gen Sultani Makenga, told new recruits who had just completed two months of training that he hoped future training sessions would be held in other major cities such as Kisangani in Tshopo Province, Kalemie in Tanganyika, and Kindu in Maniema.
'This country has collapsed; it needs to be liberated, and liberating it requires strength. As a movement, we are happy today, but we will be even happier when next time we begin such training in Kisangani, Kindu, and Kalemie,' he said.
Although M23 declares that it has no intention of provoking hostilities, the group maintains that it will continue fightingâ€"even advancing to Kinshasa with the aim of toppling President Tshisekedi's government, if attacked or if the security of Congolese citizens remains under threat.
A dilemma for Burundian troops
Burundian forces have been involved in the fight against M23 since 2023, when the country and Kinshasa signed a military cooperation agreement. However, this partnership has achieved little, as soldiers from both countries have been defeated together and forced to retreat toward Uvira and nearby areas.
If the fighting was to intensify in areas such as Uvira, the situation would become extremely difficult. Each side would deploy maximum force to defend its strongholds and capture new territory, leading to an unprecedented increase in the number of fighters and the use of heavy weaponry.
On September 17, lawmaker Justin Bitakwira, a supporter of President Tshisekedi's government, told reporters in Kinshasa that if Uvira were to fall, M23 rebels could seize Kolwezi city in Lualaba Province within 24 hours.
Bitakwira, who hails from South Kivu, stated: 'If Uvira were to fall today, what would become of the DRC's situation? Within less than 24 hours, the rebels would be in Kolwezi. Kolwezi is the economic powerhouse of this country.'
Should M23 manage to enter and seize Uvira, the Burundian troops stationed there would have no option but to retreat to Bujumbura, as they could not sustain themselves in the heart of Congo's conflict, far from their own territory.
This would not be the first time Burundian forces were forced into retreat. In January, they withdrew from all the positions they controlled in Masisi territory, retreated to Minova only to be ousted again as M23 advanced, then moved to Bukavu, and eventually fell back further to Uvira.
Tshisekedi under pressure
The international community maintains that the conflict in eastern DRC can only be resolved through political dialogue, while President Tshisekedi insists that military force is the only path to reclaim territories seized by M23.
If Tshisekedi once again rejects peace talks and resumes full-scale fighting, he risks suffering defeat as before with his forces losing even more territory. Should that happen, the international community would likely pile heavy pressure on him to return to the political track.
Faced with the loss of strategic areas, Tshisekedi would have no choice but to accept renewed peace negotiations, even if deep down he still harbors resentment.
This is reminiscent of the period when the cities of Goma and Bukavu fell to M23 fighters. At the time, the international community made it clear to President Tshisekedi that he had no choice but to concede, compelling him to send envoys to negotiations in Washington and Doha.
Back then, Tshisekedi had vowed never to engage in talks with M23, branding it a terrorist movement and declaring that entering into dialogue with the group was a 'red line' he would not cross.
IGIHE
